Storm Recap | January 28-29 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals

The major storm that impacted the South and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and this morning has now fully left the country.  What it has left; road closures, delays, and for some a very heavy snow cover.  The team began watching this system from the weekend and was able to put together a recap after of the forecast and impacts.

Official Snowfall Reports Map vs Final Snowfall Forecast

In this recap we look at the actual reports map to the final snowfall forecast posted by the team days ahead.  Whereas this is a accuracy check,  it is really a reality check, allowing to summarize our results good and bad in return to strengthen our forecasts ahead.

Official Snowfall Reports Map

While looking at the actual snowfall reports over the South from Tuesday we find 1-3″ was the average accumulation while the highest accumulations over 6″ plus over Eastern Virginia, North Carolina.  Snow even extended as far South as Louisiana.  Note, this map does not reflect ice accumulation or rain.  The dry snow gap from Georgia to South Carolina in actuality produced a mix of ice and rain to the area rather snow.  This was also the case for those around the Gulf Coast.  An area aside from the Northern coast which expressed high snow amounts we found also over the higher mountains of Eastern Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia.

National Weather Service official snowfall reports for the Deep South and Southeast, modified and generated in ArcGIS software while classified in GEO colors and accumulation range.

Final Snowfall Forecast

In contrast, the team is not all that content with the results.  Given such a wide region to forecast for it became difficult to define the extract accumulation over one or two states let alone a series of five or six.  Aside from the large majority of area to be covered, the low placement and precipitation track also continued to trend North and Westward.  Where the team initially placed 1-3″ further South and along the coastlines for snow  ice instead and significantly occurred.  We acknowledge this forecast had to do with the storm track thought a bit further off shore. Because it was closer toward the coast cities like Atlanta saw some surprising accumulations that delayed and closed roads.   Another consideration we did not look at was the Appalachians and the mountain enhanced snow for Tennessee, Western North Carolina, and Virginia.   We were however please with getting the area of heaviest snow closely enough to be correct which aligned Central to Northern North Carolina, Southeastern Virginia, and Delaware.

Official Snowfall Reports Map

During the overnight time frame from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, snow from the South would be Northwest enough to throw back some snow for the coastal Mid-Atlantic.   Heaviest snow was mentioned to be over the extreme Southeastern parts of the states especially running from New Jersey to Delaware.  Reports show officially Southern New Jersey and Delaware receiving about 3-6″ even into Long Island and the Cape.  The cutoff was very thin the more West you went where 1-3″ was observed a bit further inland from the coastal bordering states.

National Weather Service official snowfall reports for the Mid-Atlantic, modified and generated in ArcGIS software while classified in GEO colors and accumulation range.

Final Snowfall Forecast

Our forecast Tuesday night for this area the team was much more content with.  Mention was made on Tuesday afternoon for some potential snow to fall to the portions of the region and by Tuesday evening a final snowfall forecast was issued by the team. We figured if it was snowing in Tennessee and Virginia, the snow spread was definitely in view to impact the region as it all marched East and Northeast.

In reality we actually underestimated the snowfall totals of 3-6″ as widely spread as they did to parts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  Places in extreme Southern New Jersey even reached 7″ of snow! The placement and width of where the snow was forecast to fall we felt confident about and are content with the results.  We could have looked a bit deeper into places like Maryland where snow fell a bit more but each state in the forecast was mentioned to experience enhanced snowfall if a Western trend occurred with the snow swath.

Closing Statement

GeoEnvironmental Atmoshere is a team built up from meteorologists, spatial analysts, and studying aspiring college students in the atmospheric and geographic fields.  We are a three dimensional goal orientated company which focuses on storm forecasting, spatial storm impacts, and most importantly public awareness.  We take pride in getting our forecasts correctly for the sake of your company, self, and everyday safety.

If you have a question, comment, or curiosity about our company or forecasting services, Contact Ustoday before the next storm threatens.

[email protected] [email protected]