Part (2) 12z Model Sunday NowCast | Giving The EURO & CMC A Look

Since earlier this afternoon we found out the American models of the GFS and NAM kept a Northern bias producing some of the heaviest snow from Virginia, Maryland, to as far North as the Southern tips of the Pennsylvania.  It was DC to Baltimore who would be under the gun so far this afternoon.  Though in our second 12z post including the EURO and CMC model we will not disregard the earlier post, we are only adding on to it and the model outputs placing snow heaviest and lightest.

12z EURO

The EURO thus far has been the outlier among most of the models.  Snow is seen snipping the Mid-Atlantic from the South and not so much for a winter lover but a Spring lover wishing to dodge the bullet.

Figure 1: We find the EURO like each model run to have an impressive storm over the region but tracking the low pressure a bit further South.  Instead of over Virginia Beach or Ocean City it is into North Carolina.

 

Figure 2: The upper level 500MB pattern shows for a quicker interaction of the Northern and Southern streams of energy.  The team believe this could be due to the EURO outputting a much more progressive and steeper ridge causing the energy to flow further Southeasterly than other runs.

 

12z CMC

The CMC shows a similar surface and upper level pattern as the EURO but has the precipitation shield further North assimilating more toward the GFS and NAM runs from earlier.

Figure 3:  The CMC’s position of the storm is no different than the EURO though it causes for more precipitation to further Northward still.  We find this may be the case due to the once primary low pressure over Ohio keeping things a drag bit Northward give its potent stronger natural than the EURO has output.

Figure 4:  We are also given the information that perhaps the CMC at 500MB does not interact nearly as fast as the EURO potentially keeping the primary piece of energy stronger and thus the shield also North.  Both figure 2 and 4 are of the same hour.  We also notice the ridge is not as steep as the EURO has output it to be.

Northern & Southern Stream Interaction

What we are finding out is that models are not far from agreeing but still need to wrestle a few kinks out.  For one when and how soon does the interaction occur among both streaming energies, and does the ridge play a factor toward contributing to this cause?  How strong can the primary enable itself at interaction to keep precipitation further North and keep a Northern trend?

All needs to be carefully analyzed throughout the next few days.  Though, we were able to provide some information which would help spot what we’re looking for if you want a more Northern or Southern track.

Model Snowfall Output

Table 1-2: In session (2) of our afternoon 12z model runs we find some outputs different while others about the same from the once American runs of GFS and NAM earlier.  Here are some more outputs from the EURO and CMC.  In the first table we can visual these and compare then to the earlier American models in the table below.

12z CMC 12 EURO
Philadelphia, PA – 1-2” Philadelphia, PA – 0”
Baltimore, MD – 6-8”+ Baltimore, MD – 1-2”
Washington, DC – 10-12”+ Washington, DC – 3-6”
Richmond, VA – 6-8” Richmond, VA – 3-6”
Roanoke, VA – 6-8” Roanoke, VA – 12-18”
Charlottesville, VA – 12”+ Charlottesville, VA – 12-18”
12z GFS 12 NAM
Philadelphia, PA – 1-2” Philadelphia, PA – 0-1”
Baltimore, MD – 6-8” Baltimore, MD – 10-12”+
Washington, DC – 8-10” Washington, DC – 12-14”+
Richmond, VA – 10-12” Richmond, VA – 2-4”
Roanoke, VA – 1-2” Roanoke, VA – .5-1”
Charlottesville, VA – 8-10” Charlottesville, VA – 12-14”+

We find that most locations provided are in agreement with amount models except for the EURO which differentiates most from the rest.  Here we call the EURO the outlier for now.  Certain locations among model agreement may also show to be an outlier location(s) and ones of which will mean miles of snow or no snow at all.  Please keep with us throughout each updates around the clock.

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kriegel@mailxu.com